Can Gareth Southgate keep the housing market afloat?

Can Gareth Southgate keep the housing market afloat? 

Research by estate and lettings agent, Barrows and Forrester, reveals that a good performance by the England squad at World Cup 2022 in Qatar could result in a house price boost if historical market trends are anything to go by. 

Barrows and Forrester analysed historic housing market trends looking at the level of inflation adjusted house price growth across the English market and how this rate of growth differed depending on England’s previous World Cup performances. They also looked at which areas of the market have seen the best property price performance since the last World Cup.

Focussing on the so-called ‘years of hurt’ which follow England’s one and only tournament championship in the 1966 World Cup, the data shows that failing to qualify for a World Cup - as was the case in 1974, 1978, and 1994 - would have also resulted in the most muted housing market performance. 

In fact, house prices during years in which England didn’t make it to the World Cup increased by just 0.8% on average, so it’s a good thing for the nation’s homeowners that they’ve made it to Qatar 2022. 

In years where the England team have made it to the initial stages of the tournament and into the last 16, house prices have increased by an average of 2.8%. 

But, if the squad can match their recent World Cup and Euros success and make it to the final stages, this positive national sentiment could help boost domestic house prices to the greatest extent. 

In years where England have reached the quarter or semi finals of a World Cup, house prices have increased by an average of 5.3% since 1970.

But what if England makes it to the final?

Well, there’s only one historic data point to look towards in this scenario - the famed 1966 victory - and the stats suggest that anyone who is hoping to see house prices rise as much as possible might actually want to cheer against England.

England’s ‘66 success was followed by positive house price growth, but values increased by just 3.6%. This is 1.3% less than price growth for a quarter or semi-final elimination. 

Best performing English markets

When it comes to England’s top property performers since the last World Cup, it’s North Devon that lifts the trophy, with house prices up by 60.3% since June 2018.

Rochdale (+49.2%), Tameside (48%), Oldham (46.6%), and Cotswold (+45.9%) have also put in some of the best performances across the English property market.

Managing Director of Barrows and Forrester, James Forrester, commented:

“If England enjoys success at this World Cup, historic trends suggest it could be good news for homeowners with house prices likely to rise by a good chunk should they make the finals stage of the tournament. 

Of course, regardless of England’s on-pitch ability, back at home we’re dealing with a tricky economic situation and cannot rely on the positive sentiment of a good World Cup run to help stimulate the housing market.

Having said that, Gareth Southgate himself could have done a better job at handling the economy compared to some of our most recent ministerial offerings and so maybe he is the man to help keep house prices buoyant.”